Combining value and vulnerability of pinyon–juniper ecosystems for climate-smart management: A case study in Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park
Sherman J , Lober C , Thoma D , Tercek MT, Bockus D, Munson SM . 2026. Combining value and vulnerability of pinyon–juniper ecosystems for climate-smart management: A case study in Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park. Ecological Solutions and Evidence. 7(4)
Land management and natural resource conservation involve assessment of multiple factors, including climate vulnerability and resource value, yet rarely do research efforts or decision-making processes involve both facets in tandem. We develop a ‘climate-smart’ conservation framework which combines an analysis of potential future climate impacts to vegetation derived from moderate-resolution remote sensing imagery, random forest modelling and water-balance projections with resource value scores as determined by local experts in order to identify management goals within the ‘resist-accept-direct’ framework. Our framework is applied through a case study in the context of pinyon–juniper ecosystems in Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park and demonstrates how spatially explicit understandings of vegetation value and vulnerability to climate conditions interact in the context of natural resource management. Of the eight areas identified as management priority areas, three areas show an expected increase in productivity and thus managers may ‘accept’ the trajectory of change. Four of the management priority areas with relatively small, expected decreases in productivity and/or very high value are determined to be areas in which managers might ‘resist’ the trajectory of change. We find one area of lower management importance and large expected vegetation decline, which may be considered a candidate to ‘direct’ to a desirable state compatible with future climate conditions. Solution: The proposed framework is readily adaptable to all natural, managed lands and serves as a template for future land-management research and decision-making processes which are pragmatic and value-informed in the face of climate change.
- Type
- Journal Article
- Authors
- Sherman, Julie; Lober, Carolyn; Thoma, David; Tercek, Michael; Bockus, Danguole; Munson, Seth
- Units
- BLCA
- Keywords
- Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park, BLCA, Climate-Smart Conservation, Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, MODIS, NCPN Land Surface Monitoring, Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands, RAD, Remote Sensing, Resist-Accept-Direct Framework, Vegetation Vulnerability
- License
- Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 International